The Value Mirage: Will Allowing Health Insurers to Sell Across State Lines Mean Lower Premiums?

If an annual premium for a silver-level health insurance premium is $3,000 (in 2016) in Minnesota, wouldn’t it be appealing to offer that same plan and coverage to those people paying $5,400 in New York City? This is the concept behind a key component of the Trump Administration’s current replacement (or “fix”) for ObamaCare.

This post will not cite the myriad complex problems associated with this idea. We’ll describe just one—the one that will render the concept almost of no value.

That plan in Minnesota contracts with local providers (physicians and hospitals) for a certain level of payment. Generally, it is what the market will bear in, say, St. Paul, Minnesota versus what the market will bear in White Plains, New York. Historically, health costs and premiums have always been lower in metropolitan Minnesota than in southeastern New York State. Hospitals charge less for hip replacements, doctors are reimbursed less for office visits, and yes, health plans in Minnesota may even be a bit better at leveraging the market, because of their market penetration. If you transport that Minnesota plan to Westchester County, New York, you leave its advantages behind. Gopher Health Plan will have to build a brand new provider network in one of New York’s most expensive counties. Unless it also transports Minnesota providers to New York, it will pay New York prices. It is conceivable that the greater competition for providers may actually push reimbursements up—a new plan entering a market has to entice physicians to sign with their plan (regardless of a narrow or broad network). What does that mean for physicians or hospitals? They are in the driver’s seat, and have a bit more leverage with which to negotiate rates. Remember, that rate negotiation will not start at St. Paul levels. It will begin at New York metro area figures. This could have an inflationary effect.

The basic idea of bringing more competition into high-cost markets is a good one. If 2 or 3 well-run out-of-state insurers were to begin to operate in many such areas, the additional competition should have a beneficial effect on rates. But so would encouraging the birth and growth of organically grown local plans and insurers that were given the financing and resources needed to be successful.

In other words, if you see the shimmering image of a Minnesota health insurer offering great value to New York residents, it is likely a mirage in the hot, dry health reform air. And finally, this mirage evaporates quickly, as Minnesota granted average premium increases of over 50% to exchange plans for 2017, resulting in annual premiums that are closing in on $5,000.